Commercial property market outlook
Despite anticipation of the Autumn Budget, Savills reported that the commercial property market remained stable in October, with some areas of growth.
There was no change in pricing across any commercial asset class last month, with the average prime yield remaining at 6%. Eight sectors are now experiencing a downward pressure on yields – up from six in September.
Retail warehousing has shown signs of significant growth recently. At the start of September, the IPF consensus forecast reported that this sector had an average total return of 9.3% per annum, and was named the top-performing commercial property sector over a five-year period.
High street and shopping centre rents are slowly increasing as vacancies show signs of stabilising. High street vacancy has stayed at 14.0% for the last four quarters according to LDC. Meanwhile, shopping centre vacancy has only slightly fluctuated since the beginning of last year and is currently 17.6%.
A welcome increase in investor demand
During Q3, all commercial property sectors experienced increased investment demand, according to recent data from Rightmove.
Average demand went up by 11% year-on-year in Q3 – the highest rate since 2021. The industrial sector led the way with a 34% increase in demand, followed by offices (28%). Meanwhile, leisure (14%) and retail (7%) displayed slightly more modest growth. There was also a 3% annual increase in supply due to availability of light industrial units and warehousing.
The cuts to Bank Rate have improved market conditions and therefore given investors a confidence boost. Head of UK & European Industrial Research at Knight Frank, Claire Williams, commented, “Consumers are starting to loosen the purse strings and spending more on discretionary goods, in turn driving demand for more delivery services. As a result, businesses are feeling more confident in pushing forward with expansion or relocation plans, thereby boosting demand for industrial and logistics facilities.”
Regional office market update
Colliers have released their Regional Offices Snapshot for Q3.
In Birmingham, take-up was 348,690 sq. ft – the region’s highest quarterly total since Q4 2017. It was a strong quarter for Manchester too, which recorded a take-up of 432,619 sq. ft – the highest in over five years.
In Bristol, Grade A vacancy has fallen, as demand for it remains high. As a result, schemes such as EQ and Halo have secured multiple tenants despite their premium pricing. Meanwhile, prime rents in Bristol remain at the record level of £48 per sq. ft, although Colliers expect this to go up by the end of the year.
In Leeds, 33 deals were signed in Q3 – up 43% on the previous quarter. In Q2 of this year, take-up in the Northern city fell to the lowest level seen since the start of the pandemic, however transactions bounced back in Q3 with a 40% quarterly rise.
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All details are correct at the time of writing (20 November 2024)
